State of Public Crypto-Equities (July 2025)
A pro-crypto shift in Washington (after the 2024 elections) has eased pressure on the industry. The U.S. Senate’s bipartisan passage of the “GENIUS Act” for stablecoins and clearer SEC/CFTC jurisdiction has bolstered confidence. Anticipation of spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and others) becoming effective in late 2024 drove new capital into crypto markets, benefiting custodians and liquidity providers. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s pause (and potential 2025 rate cuts) has improved macro liquidity, aiding risk assets including crypto.
Market Snapshot
Coinbase and newly-listed Circle (CRCL) now lead U.S. crypto-equities by market cap (≈$95 B and $50 B, respectively) – Circle’s June IPO has been a standout, with its stock up nearly 4× on stablecoin momentum. Miners are consolidating; Marathon and Riot delivered record 2024 revenues (up 69 % and 34 %, respectively) and turned profitable on a GAAP basis. Overall, sector fundamentals improved markedly in 2024–25: many firms cut costs during the 2022–23 downturn and are now benefiting from higher crypto prices and increased on-chain activity. The attached Key Metrics Dashboard details the financial profile of top public players (market caps, revenues, profitability, balance sheets)
The next 12 months will see a robust IPO pipeline (Kraken, BitGo, etc.) as crypto firms capitalize on receptive markets. Key themes to watch include fee compression on exchanges, miner diversification into high-performance computing (AI workloads), the impact of a U.S. stablecoin bill (expected by year-end), and any after-effects of 2024’s Bitcoin halving on miner economics. TradFi executives should be ready to engage – through partnerships, strategic investments, and internal R&D – as crypto finance further intertwines with mainstream markets.
Regulatory & Macro Context (2024–25)
Pro-Crypto Policy Shift
The U.S. regulatory climate has markedly improved since early 2024. The new administration in Washington has openly championed digital-asset innovation – President Trump has appointed crypto-friendly regulators and pressed Congress for clarity on crypto markets. This culminated in mid-2025 with bipartisan momentum on legislation: the Financial Innovation & Technology (FIT) Act (clarifying SEC vs. CFTC oversight of tokens) and a stablecoin chartering bill (modeled on the “Stablecoin TRUST Act” proposals) are advancing on Capitol Hill. While not yet law, these bills’ progress has eased the “regulation by enforcement” overhang that stymied U.S. crypto firms in 2022–23. Notably, the Senate’s June 2025 passage of the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Uniform Stablecoin Standards) set the stage for federal stablecoin rules. In parallel, the SEC and CFTC have begun cooperating under clearer mandates – e.g., a framework where the CFTC oversees most non-security tokens and the SEC focuses on disclosure for token offerings. This rapprochement, along with the SEC’s court setbacks in key cases, has reduced legal uncertainty.
Federal Reserve & Macro
After aggressive tightening in 2022–23, the Fed pivoted to a hold in late 2024 as inflation cooled. Throughout 2025, the Fed has kept benchmark rates steady around 5 % while signaling potential cuts in 2025 if the economy softens. This pause (and prospects of easing) has buoyed risk assets. Crypto prices, in particular, benefited as real yields stabilized and the dollar weakened modestly in 1H25. Institutional allocators, who had sat on the sidelines during the rate hikes, re-engaged in search of upside and diversification – mid-2025 surveys showed improving sentiment toward crypto as an “alternative asset” in traditional portfolios. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF applications – led by BlackRock, Fidelity, and others – gained tacit approval. The first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to launch by Q4 2025, and even the anticipation sparked inflows into crypto investment products (over $5 B of new money went into BTC futures ETFs and trusts in late 2024 in speculation of conversion to spot ETFs). These trends tightened the correlation of crypto with macro-liquidity cycles – a marked change from the isolation (and distress) of 2022’s bear market.
Global Flows & Competition
The U.S. policy pivot has also reversed some crypto outflows. In 2023, jurisdictions like the UAE, Hong Kong, and Europe attracted talent and capital as U.S. oversight was hostile. But in 2024 the U.S. regained ground: spot-ETF hopes and clearer rules led several major crypto funds to redomicile stateside, and venture investment in U.S. crypto startups picked up (H1 2025 U.S. crypto VC funding ≈$4.8 B, on pace to top 2022 levels). Internationally, the EU’s MiCA took effect in 2024, providing a comprehensive (if strict) regime for crypto service providers – U.S. firms like Coinbase have adapted by securing EU licenses, but MiCA’s travel-rule and reserve requirements for stablecoins are more onerous than pending U.S. proposals. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors (such as sanctions on Russia) have kept policymakers attentive to crypto’s role. Notably, OFAC’s clarified guidance on sanctions screening for crypto transactions in early 2025 removed a cloud for U.S. exchanges and miners, who had feared liability – this clarity has been praised as encouraging responsible innovation. On the monetary front, talk of a U.S. CBDC has waned under the current administration, ceding the field to private stablecoins (further boosting Circle’s outlook).
Market & Industry Impact
The net effect of these macro-regulatory shifts is a more supportive environment for U.S. crypto businesses. Equity analysts in July 2025 generally project higher revenue growth for the sector versus a year ago, attributing part of that to regulatory clarity unlocking pent-up institutional demand. However, some caution that faster global hash-rate growth and competition from abroad could still pressure U.S. firms (for example, low-cost miners in the Middle East and Asia are expanding, potentially challenging U.S. mining margins post-halving). In addition, the promised U.S. legislation is not yet fully passed – a failure or delay in enacting the stablecoin or market-structure laws remains a risk (see “Risks & Watch-Points”). Overall, though, the policy tone is the most constructive it has been in years, which has materially reduced the “regulatory discount” in crypto-equity valuations.
Public-Market Snapshot
Exchanges/Brokers
Coinbase (COIN) remains the largest U.S. crypto exchange. Its FY 2024 revenue more than doubled to $6.3 B amid higher trading volumes and interest income, yielding $2.6 B in net profit. Coinbase’s market cap has swelled to ≈$95 B, reflecting investor optimism in its diversification (subscription services, Layer-2 network Base) and the anticipated ETF-driven volume uptick. Robinhood (HOOD), while a multi-asset broker, derived ≈18 % of Q1 2025 revenues from crypto. With interest rates high, Robinhood’s interest earnings on customer cash climbed – boosting 2024 net income to $1.41 B. Its stock (market cap ≈$85 B) has rallied on that profitability and a renewed focus on tech-savvy traders (including crypto traders drawn by its no-commission model). Circle (CRCL) – operator of USDC – joined public markets via a direct listing in June 2025 and now commands a ≈$50 B valuation after a frenzied post-listing surge. Circle reported $1.7 B revenue in 2024 (+15 % YoY) driven largely by interest on USDC reserves, though its net income fell 42 % to $157 M as it shared more interest with distribution partners. Its public debut underscores stablecoins’ emergence as a core crypto infrastructure: Circle’s USDC float hit $44 B in circulation (80 % YoY growth) by end-2024, and the company is positioning USDC for broader payments utility pending stablecoin legislation.
Tech/Services
Block (SQ) (formerly Square) and PayPal (PYPL) have integrated crypto into their fintech offerings. Block’s TBD division is building a Bitcoin mining ASIC and a decentralized web platform, but those are nascent – more immediately, Block’s crypto exposure is via Cash App’s trading feature and its ≈$220 M in BTC treasury holdings. In 2024, Block’s overall revenue grew 10 % to $24.1 B, and it achieved $2.9 B in GAAP net income (aided by a one-time $252 M bitcoin investment gain and cost optimization in its seller business). Block is also expanding Bitcoin mining: its TBD hardware program taped out a 5 nm prototype ASIC in 2025, aiming to start pilot production by year-end – a strategic move to vertically integrate and cut mining costs for its self-mining efforts. PayPal (PYPL), meanwhile, launched its own dollar stablecoin PYUSD in late 2023. PYUSD’s adoption has been modest (around $1.2 B issued by mid-2025), but it enhances PayPal’s crypto wallet appeal. PayPal’s 2024 crypto trading volume was flat, yet the company still saw total revenue up 6.8 % to $31.8 B with $4.15 B net income. Investors are watching PayPal’s next steps with PYUSD and whether it can leverage its massive user base to drive stablecoin payments (the regulatory framework will be key here).
Bitcoin Miners
Public mining companies staged a remarkable turnaround in late 2024 as Bitcoin’s price surge and newer-generation rigs improved margins. Marathon Digital (MARA) nearly tripled production after expanding to 23 EH/s of hash capacity. It generated $656 M revenue in 2024 (+69 % YoY) and swung to a $541 M net profit, thanks in part to $514 M in unrealized gains on its BTC holdings under new fair-value accounting. Marathon raised $750 M via convertible notes at 0 % in Aug 2024 to fund growth, ending 2024 with $836 M cash on hand. Its market cap (~$6.5 B) is the largest among miners. Riot Platforms (RIOT) grew more conservatively – 2024 revenue was $376.7 M (+34 %) with $109 M net income – but Riot notably maintained one of the lowest cost structures (avg. direct cost ≈$12 k per BTC mined). CleanSpark (CLSK) aggressively expanded through bear-market miner acquisitions, doubling its hash rate by mid-2024. That paid off: FY 2024 (Sep) revenue was $379 M (+125 % YoY). Although CleanSpark reported a net loss of $146 M for FY 24 (due to high depreciation and one-time charges), it achieved record quarterly earnings of $247 M in Q4 2024 when Bitcoin spiked, giving it cash to invest further. Its stock now trades near a $3.2 B cap. Core Scientific (CORZ) emerged from Chapter 11 in early 2024 with a restructured balance sheet, immediately benefiting from the bull market. Core’s 2024 revenue was ≈$495 M (down from 2023 as it pivoted some operations to HPC services), and it posted a large net loss on paper (over $1 B) due to warrant-liability mark-to-market swings. However, operationally Core is on firmer footing – it raised $625 M in new capital, ended 2024 with $836 M cash, and even attracted an acquisition offer: in July 2025, AI cloud firm CoreWeave proposed a stock deal valuing Core Scientific around $9 B, highlighting crossover interest in miners’ data-center infrastructure for AI workloads. Bitdeer (BTDR), which went public via SPAC in April 2023, had a challenging 2024 with revenue slightly down at $350 M (as its hosting business shrank) and a steep net loss of $599 M. Bitdeer’s results were volatile – it recorded a one-time $409 M gain in Q1 2025 from fair-value adjustments, but core mining profitability has lagged U.S. peers due to higher costs in some of its international facilities (e.g., Norway). Finally, TeraWulf (WULF), a smaller NASDAQ-listed miner, saw revenue more than double to $140 M in 2024 as it brought new nuclear-powered mining online, yet it still posted a net loss of $72 M. TeraWulf’s focus on zero-carbon energy is a differentiator and could appeal to ESG-minded investors if it seeks additional equity financing.
Key Strategic Themes & Competitive Landscape
1. Fee Compression & Exchange Diversification: Crypto trading fees are under pressure as competition heats up. In 2024–25, exchanges saw blended fee rates fall with the rise of zero-commission offerings and more institutional volume. For example, Coinbase’s retail trading take rate fell to ~1.1 % in 2024 from ~1.4 % a year prior. Robinhood’s commission-free model (subsidized by payment-for-order-flow on crypto) forced others to introduce loyalty discounts. The response has been diversification: Subscription services are a major push (Coinbase’s “Coinbase One” membership, offering zero-fee trading and enhanced support, surpassed 500 k subscribers in 1H25). Exchanges are also seeking new revenue streams – Coinbase and Kraken are expanding derivatives (Kraken acquired a small futures platform and has applied for a CFTC clearing license), while Gemini is focusing on wealth-management products for crypto (like staking-yield portfolios). Market structure shifts may aid the largest players: if the U.S. enacts an exchange-registration framework via the FIT Act, compliance costs could squeeze smaller venues, potentially consolidating market share toward Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini – all of whom have banked goodwill with regulators by engaging in policy discussions. Additionally, exchanges are broadening their asset menus (offering more altcoins as well as tokenized equities and ETFs in some jurisdictions) to capture trading interest beyond Bitcoin. The competitive landscape in 2025 features lower fees but higher volumes: Q1 2025 spot volumes on U.S. exchanges were up ~60 % YoY, offsetting much of the fee-rate compression. Exchanges with scalable tech and diverse offerings are best positioned to maintain revenue growth in this high-volume, low-margin regime.
2. Bitcoin Treasuries & “Pseudo-ETFs”: Several public companies leveraged their balance sheets to hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset – effectively offering investors a surrogate ETF with an operating business on top. MicroStrategy remains the poster child, holding 528 k BTC (worth ~$58 B) as of Q2 2025. Its stock often trades at a premium to NAV (in May 2025, MSTR’s market cap was ~$108 B vs. ~$50 B BTC holdings, a > 2× premium), reflecting investor bullishness on management’s Bitcoin-accumulation strategy and perhaps the scarcity of pure-play BTC vehicles. This dynamic has only intensified with fair-value accounting: MicroStrategy’s reported earnings are now extremely volatile (Q1 2025 saw a $5.8 B fair-value loss, Q2 presumably a large gain given BTC’s further rise), but investors largely look past GAAP swings to the underlying BTC metric. Other firms followed suit: Jack Dorsey’s Block holds ~13 k BTC on its balance sheet and has signaled it may accumulate more as a strategic reserve asset. Marathon and Riot also retain a portion of mined Bitcoin (Marathon held ~12 300 BTC at end-2024, not far below MicroStrategy’s count, funded by equity issuance). These corporate Bitcoin treasuries introduce unique risks and opportunities. In a bull market, they supercharge earnings – e.g., Marathon’s 2024 net profit was largely driven by $514 M in unrealized crypto gains. But in downturns, they can severely strain liquidity (as seen in 2022 when miners had to sell BTC at lows to cover costs). Going forward, companies are adopting more active treasury management: some miners started modest BTC lending or yield strategies in 2025 to monetize holdings without selling, and MicroStrategy launched a “Bitcoin yield” KPI (13.7 % YTD in Q1 2025) by creatively using derivatives to increase BTC per share. Investors should expect continued outsized stock volatility tied to BTC prices – effectively, holding these equities is akin to a levered Bitcoin bet with an operating-business kicker. If a spot ETF is approved, it’s possible some of these firms’ valuation premium may erode as investors have more direct alternatives; however, managements like MicroStrategy’s have indicated they’ll simply buy more Bitcoin with any new capital, maintaining their appeal as “asset-play” stocks.
3. Stablecoin Economics & Float Revenue: Circle and Paxos have brought stablecoins squarely into equity analysts’ focus. With rising interest rates through 2023–24, the float revenue from stablecoin reserves became extremely lucrative. Circle, as issuer of USDC, earned over $700 M in interest income in 2024 (on ~$30 B average USDC reserves at ~4–5 % yields) – contributing the majority of its $1.7 B revenue. However, Circle shares 50 % of USDC interest with Coinbase via their Centre Consortium deal, and from mid-2024 it increased rebates to other ecosystem partners, so net revenue grew only +15 %. Still, stablecoin float is now a proven profit engine. Paxos, issuer of USDP (and formerly BUSD for Binance), similarly saw a windfall in interest earnings – though BUSD’s forced wind-down in 2023 meant Paxos’ overall revenues likely fell in 2024. Both companies have been lobbying for clear stablecoin regulatory approval (e.g., a federal trust charter), which would cement their reserve status and allow expansion. A key strategic theme is stablecoin distribution: Circle’s USDC volumes are heavily U.S.-institutional, while competitors like Tether (USDT) still dominate globally (>$80 B vs. USDC’s ~$44 B circulation). Circle’s public listing and transparency are part of its play to gain market share, pitching USDC as the compliant choice. It is also innovating on revenue beyond interest – e.g., exploring off-chain lending of reserves under strict risk limits, and developing transaction-fee use cases via its programmable-wallet APIs. PayPal’s PYUSD adds a new wrinkle; while small now, PayPal could leverage its 400 M users to grow PYUSD, and as a public company it would capture float income similarly. In summary, stablecoin issuers’ business models are shifting from pure volume growth to maximizing per-dollar economics: ensuring high reserve yields (Circle moved more reserves into short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024) and minimizing sharing agreements. Regulatory capital requirements, if enacted by Congress, could force more collateral or liquidity buffers – slightly reducing profitability – but industry insiders expect the legislation to lock in permissibility of interest-earning reserves at banks, preserving most of the economics. The big picture: stablecoins are increasingly being valued like “digital narrow banks”, and public markets are assigning significant worth to that model (Circle at ~$50 B implies > 30× forward P/E). Should rates decline sharply, that float revenue will shrink – a risk investors are weighing against secular-adoption growth.
4. Miner Scaling & the Hashrate Capacity Race: The Bitcoin-mining industry is in an expansionary phase heading into 2025, despite April 2024’s halving cutting block rewards in half. The reason: the post-halving price rally (BTC >$100 k) more than compensated, and miners are racing to deploy next-gen machines to grab a larger share of the global hashrate before the 2028 halving. Global BTC network hashrate is up ~70 % YoY, reaching ~450 EH/s in mid-2025. Marathon and Riot each surpassed 20 EH/s operational by mid-2025, with Marathon aiming for 30 EH/s by early 2026 through new facility build-outs in Abu Dhabi and West Texas. CleanSpark used the bear market to acquire thousands of rigs on the cheap and now touts ~16 EH/s at industry-low all-in cost of $0.04/kWh (thanks to Georgia nuclear-power contracts). Core Scientific, after restructuring, shifted strategy: it is still expanding self-mining (targeting 25 EH/s in 2025) but also repurposing some sites for HPC data-center hosting – e.g., it signed a deal to provide 250 MW of capacity to CoreWeave (an AI-cloud provider) by end-2025. This reflects a broader theme: miners diversifying into high-performance computing to utilize infrastructure during crypto downturns. We also see vertical integration: besides Block’s ASIC project, Bitdeer (backed by Jihan Wu) has been developing proprietary mining-farm-management software and containerized rigs to improve efficiency, which it may also sell to peers. The arms race to scale hash-rate does raise the risk of overcapacity if crypto prices retrench. Smaller or leveraged miners could be squeezed – as Core Scientific warned, miners on expensive grid power will face a “reckoning” by the next halving if energy costs rise. Indeed, power contracts are a key competitive differentiator now. TeraWulf’s nuclear-powered mine at Nautilus (PA) gives it stable low rates ($0.02/kWh) supporting > 80 % gross margins, whereas some older facilities paying $0.07+ are barely breaking even even at current BTC prices. In the public markets, investors are rewarding miners that secure cheap, preferably renewable power and show a path to scale. Mining-company valuations have thus bifurcated: those with sub-$0.03/kWh energy (often via joint ventures with power firms) trade at premium P/Hash multiples. The capacity race is set to continue into 2026, but it will likely result in consolidation – the largest players with efficient operations are positioned to acquire distressed assets from weaker rivals, growing even larger.
5. Convergence with AI and HPC: A novel trend in 2025 is crypto miners and infrastructure firms converging with the booming AI-compute sector. The CoreWeave–Core Scientific deal is emblematic: an AI startup valued at $2 B is willing to pay a hefty ~$9 B (in stock) to acquire a Bitcoin miner’s data centers. What’s the rationale? These facilities have abundant power, cooling, and racks – exactly what GPU-based AI-training clusters need. Bitcoin mines can be reconfigured for high-performance computing (HPC) workloads in off-peak times or in whole, especially as ASICs become more efficient (fewer physical machines needed to yield the same hash). Some miners have already begun dual-use operations: e.g., Hive Blockchain (Canada) started running HPC workloads on its GPU servers when not mining Ethereum; Applied Digital (Nasdaq: APLD) pivoted from mining to primarily AI-cloud services by 2025. U.S. public miners are following suit. Riot is evaluating allocating a portion of its massive Texas facility to an AI tenant in 2026. Marathon’s CEO has mentioned exploring “computational diversification” – the firm joined a research consortium on Bitcoin-mining’s synergies with data-center grids (since mining rigs can be quickly throttled to balance load, a trait valued in grid stabilizing for big HPC centers). This convergence theme suggests that the line between a “Bitcoin miner” and a generic data-center operator may blur. From an investor perspective, it potentially de-risks miners’ revenue streams (introducing HPC-rental income that is not directly tied to BTC price). It also opens miners to new forms of financing (e.g., HPC-equipment loans, partnerships with cloud providers). The strategic takeaway: crypto-infrastructure companies are positioning themselves as part of the broader digital-infrastructure universe, not just single-purpose miners. If successful, this could lead to multiple expansion (as markets might value them closer to data-center REITs or cloud companies). However, execution will be key – converting a mining facility to run AI workloads is non-trivial (networking, security, uptime requirements are higher). Still, expect more headlines of crypto firms partnering with AI firms – for instance, Coinbase’s cloud-services arm is reportedly in talks with an AI startup to utilize Coinbase’s computing cluster (built originally for on-chain analytics) for machine-learning tasks when underutilized. Such cross-industry collaboration was almost unheard of two years ago; now it’s a frontier of growth.
Upcoming IPO & Reverse-Listing Pipeline (2H 2025 – 1H 2026)
A wave of high-profile crypto companies is preparing to hit the public markets over the next year. Below we deep-dive into the most anticipated offerings and listing candidates:
Kraken (Targeting 2026 IPO)
Kraken, the San Francisco-based crypto exchange, is widely expected to go public by Q1 2026 (likely via direct listing or traditional IPO, after shelving SPAC ideas in 2022). In June 2025, Kraken closed a small pre-IPO funding round of $27 million at an implied valuation around $11 billion, as a strategic top-up for growth plans. The company has been scaling steadily: it reported $472 million in revenue in Q1 2025 (up 19 % YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $187 M, indicating healthy ~40 % margins. That puts Kraken on track for roughly $1.8–2.0 B revenue in 2025 – solidly the #2 U.S. exchange after Coinbase. Unlike Coinbase, Kraken has kept a lower profile with regulators (it exited U.S. staking early to settle SEC claims and maintains a bank charter in Wyoming for crypto banking). That conservative approach seems to be paying off; by mid-2025 Kraken saw a notable influx of European users after some smaller EU exchanges shut down, and it’s expanding in Asia (recently launched in Japan under new licensing). IPO outlook: Kraken’s co-founder/CEO Jesse Powell stepped back in late 2022, leaving COO Dave Ripley and new co-CEOs to steer the ship toward an IPO. They have indicated Kraken will only list after U.S. regulatory clarity – presumably now largely achieved. The IPO timing (likely after the next Bitcoin ETF launch and into a potentially strong market) could be fortuitous. Investors will look at Kraken’s diversified revenue (spot trading, futures via its acquisition of Crypto Facilities, staking abroad, and NFT marketplaces). One item to watch is Kraken’s banking arm (Kraken Bank), which could give it a unique vertical integration but also invites scrutiny from bank regulators. Kraken’s recent financials show it is solidly profitable (estimated net income ~$100 M in 2024) despite making heavy investments in security and compliance. A potential risk factor: Kraken’s trading fees are higher than Coinbase’s for many tiers, so any industry-wide fee compression could impact it – management will likely emphasize its customer loyalty and global footprint to justify its pricing. In summary, Kraken’s IPO would finally give U.S. investors another pure-play exchange stock; it is often described as “Coinbase’s closest competitor,” and if Coinbase continues to trade at ~10 × sales, Kraken could seek a similar multiple – implying an IPO valuation in the low ten-billions (market conditions permitting). The company’s leaders have hinted that being public will allow it to make acquisitions (perhaps snapping up smaller foreign exchanges or DeFi interfaces). Expect Kraken to position itself in its IPO narrative as the trusted, long-running exchange (founded 2011) that navigated regulatory hurdles and is poised for the next wave of adoption.
BitGo (Exploring late-2025 IPO)
BitGo, a Palo Alto-based crypto custody and infrastructure firm, is reportedly in talks with advisors about an IPO as soon as H2 2025. Founded in 2013, BitGo has become a heavyweight in institutional crypto: it handles over $100 billion of assets under custody (as of mid-2025, up from ~$60 B at end-2024) amid surging demand for secure storage. Its core business – safeguarding digital assets for institutions and facilitating their movement – has benefited enormously from the post-FTX flight to regulated custodians. BitGo’s managing director in APAC revealed that AUC jump (67 % in six months) and noted half of those assets are now staked, reflecting how BitGo monetizes custody by offering staking/yield on client assets. Financially, BitGo is private about revenues, but industry analysts estimate FY 2024 revenue around $150–200 million, primarily from custody fees, staking yield spread, and its crypto trading & lending services. The firm has also expanded via acquisitions – e.g., purchasing wallet security startup Armor in 2024 and a fintech (Prime Trust’s remaining tech, after Prime Trust’s collapse) to bolster its infrastructure. BitGo’s Series C in 2023 raised $100 M at a $1.75 B valuation. Given the rapid growth since (AUC up, and likely revenues up with interest rates/staking yields), BitGo could seek an IPO valuation in the multibillion range. Key selling points will be:
(1) Regulatory compliance – BitGo has trust charters in South Dakota, New York, Switzerland etc., making it a qualified custodian in the U.S. and globally;
(2) Blue-chip clients – it provides custody for major exchanges (it took on many of FTX’s former institutional clients), investment firms, and even the El Salvador government’s Bitcoin treasury;
(3) Security track record – no major breaches, which in crypto custody is paramount. BitGo is also riding the wave of industry consolidation: smaller custodians like Prime Trust failed, and even Coinbase Custody has focused more on internal use, leaving BitGo as a premier independent player. A potential IPO risk factor is that custody fees could compress if competitors like Fidelity Digital Assets or Coinbase pursue market share (BitGo typically charges 4–10 bps annually on assets custodied). Additionally, half of BitGo’s AUC being staked assets means its business partly depends on proof-of-stake networks and could fluctuate with staking yields or regulatory stance on staking. Nonetheless, BitGo’s leadership (CEO Mike Belshe) has indicated confidence that being public would increase trust among institutions (who prefer transparent, well-capitalized service providers). The timing (late-2025) likely aims to capitalize on a window after stablecoin legislation (since BitGo is also a major stablecoin custodian) and as more institutions come in via ETFs. In summary, BitGo is positioning to be the “picks-and-shovels” play for the crypto economy – an arms dealer selling secure storage to all sides. Its IPO, if it proceeds, will be a bellwether for institutional crypto appetite.
ConsenSys (potential 2026 listing)
ConsenSys, the Brooklyn-based software company behind MetaMask and Infura, is not confirmed for an imminent IPO, but it completed a significant Series D extension in May 2025 (raising an additional $[Value] at a valuation reportedly around $[Value] – details were not public) to fuel growth, which suggests it’s preparing for an eventual public debut. (ConsenSys was valued at $7 B in its March 2022 $450 M Series D; sources indicate it has sought >$10 B in internal valuations since then, given product traction.) The firm’s flagship wallet MetaMask surpassed 100 million annual users in 2024, and importantly, ConsenSys began monetizing MetaMask in late 2023 via swap fees and institutional versions. By mid-2025, MetaMask’s built-in DEX aggregator and staking features were generating an estimated $40–50 M quarterly revenue for ConsenSys – a notable shift for a historically “free software” company. Additionally, ConsenSys launched its Linea zkEVM (Layer-2 network) in 2023; by 2025 it’s seeing decent usage, and ConsenSys plans to token-launch Linea in 2025 (which could unlock further value if Linea’s token is partially allocated to ConsenSys as the developer). The company’s financials aren’t public, but insiders suggest FY 2024 revenue in the low hundreds of millions (from Infura’s API subscriptions, MetaMask swaps, and enterprise blockchain contracts), with the company still near break-even due to high R&D spend. An IPO for ConsenSys would be compelling because it’s one of the few major Web3 infrastructure plays – essentially a bet on the decentralized internet rather than just on crypto trading. Its prospects depend on continued mass adoption of self-custody (MetaMask is the gateway for many into Web3). A risk is that MetaMask faces competition from new wallets (including those by Coinbase and Robinhood) that have smoother UX. In response, ConsenSys made two acquisitions in 2024–25 to improve MetaMask onboarding – notably Web3Auth in June 2025, which will allow users to access MetaMask with email/social logins instead of seed-phrases, a big UX win. The Series D proceeds (2025) are reportedly funding these user-experience upgrades and regulatory compliance (ConsenSys is cautiously geo-fencing certain services to avoid U.S. trouble, until clearer rules). If it lists, ConsenSys will likely emphasize its position as a pick-and-shovel for Web3, echoing the narrative of AWS for blockchain (via Infura) plus the dominant wallet. The timeline is a bit further out – perhaps H1 2026 – since ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin has hinted they want to launch a token (Linea or potentially a MetaMask token) before any equity listing, to galvanize their community. For now, ConsenSys remains private but its moves (fundraising, acquisitions, product monetization) indicate an orientation toward the public markets. A successful IPO would provide public investors exposure to the Ethereum ecosystem’s growth in a way currently not available.
Chainalysis (Pre-IPO secondary and future listing)
Chainalysis, the New York-based blockchain analytics firm, hasn’t formally announced IPO plans, but it executed a notable secondary share sale in Feb 2025 to provide liquidity for early investors and employees. That secondary reportedly implied a valuation around $4–5 B – down from Chainalysis’s last primary valuation of $8.6 B (mid-2021), reflecting the reset in private tech valuations post-2022. Despite the lower paper valuation, Chainalysis’s business is fundamentally strong and growing, especially with heightened government focus on crypto compliance. The firm has a $100 M+ government contract backlog, spanning agencies like the U.S. Treasury, DOJ, DHS, and allied governments abroad (it’s the go-to provider for tracing illicit crypto transactions). In 2024, Chainalysis also expanded its private-sector offerings – its “KYT” (Know Your Transaction) compliance software is now used by over 200 crypto businesses to monitor wallets in real-time. Revenues for 2024 are estimated around $200 M, up from ~$150 M in 2023, with a significant portion being recurring subscription fees for its software tools. The company is not yet profitable (it invested heavily in product and global offices, and did lay off ~5 % of staff in late 2022 to trim costs). However, by 2025 it may be nearing break-even on an adjusted basis. The strategic value of Chainalysis is huge – think of it as the “fact checker” of the crypto world, enabling law enforcement and exchanges to detect hacks, fraud, and sanctions evasion. Its closest competitor, Elliptic, is much smaller and private, and some banks have built in-house analytics but often still license Chainalysis data. For a public listing, timing may depend on market conditions and when early VCs (like Accel, Benchmark) want an exit; the Feb 2025 secondary suggests they’re willing to wait for a full IPO potentially in 2026. In the meantime, Chainalysis is broadening its scope: it acquired a government services contractor (Abaxx Associates) in 2024 to deepen its federal procurement know-how, and it’s been touting new capabilities to analyze DeFi and NFT markets (as crypto criminals shift to those). An IPO case for Chainalysis will lean on regulatory tailwinds: with global enforcement of crypto rules tightening, demand for blockchain analytics is only growing. One risk factor is that as crypto transactions move to privacy-enhancing tech (like mixers or privacy chains), tracing becomes harder – but regulators are simultaneously clamping down on those (e.g., OFAC sanctioned mixer Tornado Cash). Chainalysis’s long-term vision is to be the Bloomberg of blockchain data – an essential data layer for the financial system as crypto integrates. If it maintains growth and margin improvement, an IPO in late 2025 or 2026 is plausible. Given its current private valuation, a public valuation might land in the mid-single-digit billions, but if the crypto market is hot and Chainalysis is seen as a picks-and-shovels play, it could command premium multiples akin to high-growth SaaS analytics firms.
Bullish, Gemini, Paxos – Other prospective entrants.
A few other notable crypto firms have been rumored or reported to consider public market options:
Bullish Global: The exchange backed by Block.one and Peter Thiel that had attempted a $9 B SPAC in 2021 (which was called off) is still operating (with a focus on institutional liquidity pools) and could revisit a listing. However, Bullish’s volumes have been modest, and it faces an up-hill battle to justify a large valuation. It’s more likely to pursue a traditional IPO at a lower valuation if market conditions remain favorable. Recent reports suggest Bullish might wait until it can show traction from its unique hybrid order book/AMM model – perhaps needing another year of data. If it does list, it would tout its deep liquidity (it market-makes with its treasury) and potentially regulatory compliance (headquartered in Gibraltar, registered with Bermuda Monetary Authority). In the current landscape, Bullish is a smaller player, so its listing (if it happens) would not be as high-profile as others – but it could sneak in during a bullish window.
Gemini: The Winklevoss twins’ Gemini Trust is a licensed New York Trust Company and well-known exchange/custodian. Gemini has had a turbulent time – the Genesis Earn debacle in 2022 (where Gemini users lost funds in Genesis’s bankruptcy) hurt its brand and led to ongoing legal battles with DCG. By mid-2025, however, Gemini has largely put that behind it (it’s pursuing claims in court, but also moving forward). The twins injected more capital to shore up Gemini’s balance sheet, and the company has been expanding internationally (launching a derivatives platform outside the U.S. in 2023, and securing an Irish license in 2025 to serve the EU). There have been rumors that Gemini might seek outside investment or an IPO to fuel growth, especially since it lost U.S. market share during 2022–23. No formal IPO plans are known, but given their direct competitors Coinbase and Circle are public, the comparative pressure might push Gemini to consider it. Any such move is likely in late 2025 or 2026 and would depend on resolving the outstanding legal issues (the SEC also sued Gemini in early 2023 over Earn; a resolution there would be needed). If Gemini were to list, its selling points include a strong compliance history (prior to Earn, Gemini was seen as one of the most regulation-friendly exchanges), its Gemini Dollar (GUSD) stablecoin (though GUSD’s float is small ~$400 M), and its Gemini Credit Card user base (an innovative crypto rewards card launched 2022). But it would need to demonstrate renewed growth – its volumes and user counts have stagnated. The twins may choose instead to keep Gemini private and possibly raise a private round (last we heard, they attempted to raise ~$1 B in 2023 but didn’t close an external deal). For now, we consider Gemini a possible candidate if the market stays hot and it can go out with a clean slate.
Paxos: Paxos Trust (issuer of USDP and gold-backed PAXG, and provider of white-label crypto brokerage for PayPal, Interactive Brokers, etc.) is another behind-the-scenes firm that could seek the public markets. Paxos was actually on an IPO track in 2022 before the market turned – it even filed a confidential S-1 then paused. It faced a setback in Feb 2023 when NYDFS ordered it to halt new issuance of Binance’s BUSD (which Paxos was issuing under contract) over regulatory concerns. In response, Paxos pivoted to emphasize its own USDP stablecoin and other services. Paxos’s strength lies in its regulatory credentials (it holds one of the few NYDFS Trust charters for digital assets) and its enterprise partnerships. For example, Paxos powers PayPal’s crypto buying feature on the backend. It also built a private permissioned settlement network that did pilot equity settlements with Credit Suisse, etc. The revenue from these ventures is moderate – Paxos’s 2024 revenue is estimated around $100 M (down from 2022, since BUSD was shuttered which cut into reserve interest earnings). The company did a big $300 M Series D in 2021 at a $2.4 B valuation. If it goes public, it would likely wait for the stablecoin bill to pass (which would validate its model) and perhaps until its lawsuit with the SEC (the SEC staff was reportedly considering enforcement over BUSD) is resolved. Paxos in 2025 is focusing on infrastructure (it recently received SEC approval to clear stock trades in a pilot, something it’s been working on). So an eventual IPO could sell Paxos as a “crypto fintech” bridging traditional and crypto markets. However, Paxos might also choose a strategic sale or remain private if market/regulatory conditions don’t fully clarify. It’s one to watch – any indication of Paxos hiring bankers or filing an S-1 would be a strong signal that the crypto IPO window is indeed wide open.
Mining sector reverse mergers or IPOs: Since January 2024, few new mining pure-plays have filed for U.S. listings – the turbulence of 2022’s crypto winter left many mining firms either already public (via prior SPACs) or in distressed positions. One noteworthy event was Bitdeer’s successful listing (through a SPAC) in April 2023, giving the sector a new entrant. Other miners that had planned SPAC mergers (like PrimeBlock) ultimately terminated those plans. In 2024, instead of new IPOs, we saw consolidation of existing players: e.g., Hut 8 and U.S. Bitcoin Corp announced a merger in early 2024 to form a combined mining company (to be named Hut 8 Corp) which will be NASDAQ-listed – essentially using Hut 8’s listing to bring US Bitcoin public via merger. Similarly, rumors swirled that Iris Energy (NASDAQ: IREN) might explore acquiring a smaller private miner to expand via its public vehicle. The bottom line is that no major fresh S-1s from miners hit the SEC in 2024, and that is telling – mining firms seem to prefer combining forces or waiting for more favorable equity conditions (perhaps after the 2025 wet season in China or as the 2026–27 pre-halving investment cycle starts) before attempting IPOs. Moreover, some private U.S. miners found alternative funding in 2024–25 (e.g., debt financing from energy companies or sovereign wealth funds) and thus didn’t need to IPO. One niche case: Applied Digital pivoted to AI and successfully uplisted to NASDAQ (it’s not a pure miner anymore). Looking ahead, if Bitcoin remains at historically high prices and equities remain receptive, a couple of second-tier miners might test the waters (for instance, Cipher Mining – already public since 2021 – might spin off a subsidiary, or a private player like Foundry could consider a listing). But given the current landscape, we expect consolidation and strategic M&A rather than many standalone mining IPOs. The most dramatic potential “reverse listing” is actually the aforementioned Core Scientific acquisition – if that closes, CoreWeave (the acquirer) indicated it might later spin out the Bitcoin mining segment as a tracking stock. That suggests the mining industry is entering a phase of integration with broader data-center and tech plays, rather than spawning new independent public entities.
Risks & Watch-Points (Next 12 Months)
Even with the bullish backdrop, crypto companies still face material hazards:
Regulatory Delays or Reversals: Stablecoin and market-structure bills could stall or gain onerous last-minute clauses. Election-year politics may slow clarity, and a surprise SEC crackdown or appeal could chill sentiment.
Watch-Point: Track FIT21 and stablecoin bills in committee—any holdup or veto threat can spark volatility.
Hash-Rate Migration & Miner Squeeze: If hash rate keeps climbing while BTC stalls, block rewards shrink, hitting high-cost U.S. miners first. Energy spikes (e.g., Texas heatwaves) and looming 2028 halving add pressure.
Watch-Point: When hash growth outpaces price for multiple quarters, expect margin compression and weaker miners defaulting.
ETF Dynamics & Outflows: Spot-BTC ETFs are bullish at launch but can flip to fast outflows if macro turns. Outflows would dent Bitcoin’s price and slash exchange volumes while diverting capital from GBTC or crypto-equities.
Watch-Point: Monitor post-launch ETF flows and NAV discounts as an early stress gauge.
Stablecoin Shake-ups: Passage of a stablecoin bill triggers new licenses and reserve rules; delays could choke issuance. New fintech or bank entrants and lower rates would bite USDC’s fee margin.
Watch-Point: Watch market-cap rankings and reserve reports—USDC’s recovery to ~$45 B is key; any big-brand coin announcement would be disruptive.
Cybersecurity & Resilience: Constant hacking attempts mean one breach could vaporize trust. Trading outages during volatility risk fines and reputational damage.
Watch-Point: Rising cyber-insurance costs or company disclosures of more frequent incidents signal elevated risk.
Macro & Correlation Risks: A growth shock, inflation resurgence, or geopolitical flare-up can push Bitcoin—now ~0.6-correlated with Nasdaq—into a risk-off sell-off. A sudden USD rally would amplify pressure.
Watch-Point: Spikes in VIX, credit spreads, or DXY usually transmit quickly to crypto prices and volumes.
Conclusion & Action Items for TradFi CIOs
The U.S. crypto-equity arena is maturing; dismissing it now risks strategic blindness. CIOs should:
Integrate Digital Assets Selectively: Forge custody or trading partnerships (e.g., BitGo, Coinbase Custody) and consider small allocations to crypto-equities or ETFs to build internal expertise.
Modernize Infrastructure & Risk: Deploy real-time risk monitoring, reassess counterparty policies, and run controlled pilots—such as USDC for internal transfers or permissioned DeFi repo—while regulators are accommodative.
Secure Talent & Policy Influence: Hire crypto-native specialists, join industry groups, and engage in standards setting. Early involvement delivers insight and shapes rules that will govern future profitability.
Embracing these action items will not only mitigate the risks highlighted earlier but also position your organization to capitalize on the next phase of crypto adoption. The message of 2024–25 is clear: crypto is here to stay in the financial system, and forward-thinking CIOs must treat it as an opportunity – to innovate, diversify revenue, and appeal to the next generation of clients – rather than a curiosity. The coming year offers a prime chance to execute strategic moves on a foundation of much-improved market conditions and regulatory clarity. Now is the time to act.
Sources
Risk Disclaimer:
insights4.vc and its newsletter provide research and information for educational purposes only and should not be taken as any form of professional advice. We do not advocate for any investment actions, including buying, selling, or holding digital assets.
The content reflects only the writer's views and not financial advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before engaging with cryptocurrencies, DeFi, NFTs, Web 3 or related technologies, as they carry high risks and values can fluctuate significantly.
Note: This research paper is not sponsored by any of the mentioned companies.